Surveying business uncertainty

We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation is to let survey respondents freely select support points and probabilities in five-point over future sales growth, employment, investment. data collection, we develop field new monthly panel Survey Business Uncertainty. The SBU began 2014 now covers 1,750 firms drawn all 50 states, every major nonfarm industry, range firm sizes. find three results. First, firm-level growth expectations are highly predictive realized rates. Second, uncertainty predicts the magnitudes forecast errors revisions. Third, rises with firm’s absolute rate previous year magnitude recent revisions its expected rate. aggregate construct indices (first moment) (second for U.S. private sector.